Chapter 647: -When It Rains, It Pours
The Russian government was taking action, and the Prussian government wasn’t idle either. However, unlike the Russians, who had substantial assets and ample collateral, the Prussian-Polish Federation was much poorer.
Use resources as collateral?
Sorry, but the Prussian-Polish Federation’s mineral resources were very limited. The most valuable assets were probably the agricultural products of Poland.
Unfortunately, the agricultural crisis hadn’t fully passed, and the international agricultural trade market was still oversaturated. These products weren’t worth much at all.
If it were merely a pricing issue, there might still be room for negotiation. Capital seeks profit, and offering a discount might make things work.
The key problem, however, was security. If the Prussian-Polish Federation lost the war, all these loans would be worthless, as the Russians would certainly refuse to acknowledge them.
If resources couldn’t be used as collateral, what about territory, taxes, railways, or ports?
In theory, these assets had value as collateral as long as bankers were willing to accept them.
Given the sheer scale of the funds involved, it would require convincing financial consortia to take them on. Even with government backing, it wouldn’t suffice without their support.
The problem was that no one could guarantee the Prussian-Polish Federation’s victory in the war. If they lost, all of the Prussian government’s promissory notes would turn into worthless paper.Unlike the Russian Empire, even if it were to lose the war, it wouldn’t face total collapse. The collateral offered by the Russian government was something that, even if the Prussian-Polish Federation won the war, they wouldn’t have the capacity to occupy.
The Prussian-Polish Federation, on the other hand, was different. Its resources were limited, and a defeat would mean losing everything.
No one doubted the Russians’ appetite. Even if they couldn’t swallow the Prussian-Polish Federation whole, they could still use it to settle debts. The Austrian government might have no interest in Poland, but its ambitions for Prussian territory were well-known.
When a slogan is shouted long enough, a falsehood can become the truth. Franz’s Greater Germany Plan had been proclaimed for so many years that it was already deeply ingrained in the public consciousness.
Outside of a few senior government officials, most Austrians saw the unification of the German territories as their ultimate goal.
The Prussian government couldn’t and wouldn’t dare use its core territories as collateral. Otherwise, before the Russians even arrived, the Junker aristocracy at home would launch a coup.
There’s no point arguing about the bigger picture. If the Junkers had any sense of the bigger picture, then in the original timeline, Germany wouldn’t have met such tragic ends.
In the Berlin Palace, Wilhelm I asked with anticipation, “Has any bank agreed to give us a loan?”
In this era, the best way to handle international loans or bond issuance was to first secure the support of banking consortia and let the banks smooth things over with governments.
As long as an agreement was signed with the banks, approval would generally follow, saving a lot of political maneuvering and additional conditions.
Foreign Minister Geoffrey Friedman reported, “As of now, only five banks have shown interest. These are all small banks looking to gamble on a risky opportunity. Even if negotiations succeed, they can only issue a few tens of millions of marks in bonds at most which falls far short of our expected target.”
(Author’s Note: One mark is approximately equivalent to 0.358 grams of gold.)
There is never a shortage of risk-takers in the world. Even though the outside world largely doubts the Prussian-Polish Federation, there are still those willing to take the gamble.
After a moment of silence, Wilhelm I slowly spoke, “Contact the Jews. If they are willing to issue bonds on our behalf or provide loans, we will support their bid for an independent state.”
Wilhelm I didn’t like the Jews, but he had no choice but to cooperate with them now. Due to the Russian government’s anti-Semitism, Jews in Russia had been subjected to brutal massacres, and relations between the two were extremely poor.
The enemy of my enemy is my ally. In this era, Jews felt particularly unsafe, especially after the outbreak of Russian anti-Semitic campaigns. For their own safety, Jews had to strike back and show the world their strength.
In the historical timeline of the Russo-Japanese War, the Japanese government managed to endure not only with British support but also with significant contributions from Jewish capitalists.
Foreign Minister Geoffrey Friedman said, “Your Majesty, I’m afraid that may not be enough. While it’s true that Jews oppose Russia, Jewish capital prioritizes tangible interests.
The movement for an independent Jewish state is supported by only a portion of ordinary Jews, who have little influence. Even if they are willing to cooperate with us, they lack the capacity to absorb a significant amount of bonds.”
At this time, the call for the establishment of a Jewish state was not strong. The Jewish people, scattered across the world, remained fragmented and not united.
Jewish capital, in particular, had no concept of nationality and was loyal only to profits. Excluded by European society, its position was often precarious.
Most Jewish capitalists feared that the establishment of a Jewish state would provoke suspicion or even suppression from their host governments, so they consistently opposed independence.
The Russian government’s anti-Semitic campaigns did shock many, but to little effect. Most of the victims were ordinary people while the capitalists, leveraging their wealth, received early warnings and fled in time.
“Haaaa…”
After letting out a sigh, Wilhelm I said reluctantly, “Give it a try. Raise as much funding as possible and prepare the Foreign Ministry. I will personally visit Europe.”
Reality was harsh. Even if he didn’t want to, Wilhelm I had no choice but to personally reach out and endure the humiliation of being at the mercy of others to secure sufficient war funding.
…
Prime Minister Moltke reported, “Your Majesty, we’ve just received news that at 8:15 this morning, Marshal Albrecht von Roon has passed away.”
When it rains, it pours. Just as the Russo-Prussian War was on the brink of erupting, another pillar of the military fell.
Albrecht von Roon was the least well-known of Prussia’s “Three Greats,” but his contributions to the Kingdom of Prussia were by no means insignificant.
Simply leading the military reforms that established the powerful Prussian army was enough to secure his place in history.
Roon held a pivotal role in the Prussian military, acting as a mediator in the power struggles between the military and the government. Following the Russo-Prussian War, the smooth transition of power within the Prussian government owed much to his efforts.
Wilhelm I said solemnly, “Prepare a state funeral.”
It was clear his mood was exceptionally grim. Two months ago, when Roon took to his sickbed, Wilhelm I had mentally prepared for this moment. Yet now that it had come, he still found it hard to accept.
Political figures tend to be resilient under pressure, and Wilhelm I quickly shifted his focus from grief to the implications of Roon’s death.
Balancing the power of the military and the government had never been an easy task. With Roon’s passing, a successor was urgently needed to serve as a stabilizing mediator.
This was no easy choice. The successor would need to command enough respect within the military to gain trust while also possessing sharp political judgment.
Wilhelm I’s first thought was Moltke, but he quickly ruled him out. While Moltke commanded great respect within the military, his political acumen left much to be desired.
Ironically, it was for this very reason that Moltke had been appointed Prime Minister. If a politically astute and influential military figure were in his position, Wilhelm I would not have dared grant him such power.
The power of the monarch and the power of ministers must also engage in mutual competition. The phenomenon of officials becoming too powerful to be controlled exists in both Eastern and Western contexts. While killing loyal ministers may not occur, if subordinates become too capable, restraining and suppressing them becomes inevitable.
After much hesitation, Wilhelm I decided to maintain the status quo. With war against Russia imminent, the Prussian government could not afford internal instability. Any major issues would have to wait until after the war.
The potential aftermath was a secondary concern. Victory would bring its own challenges, and if they lost, fleeing into exile would make such worries moot.