I am Hollywood

[Chapter 1192: The Debt of a Bet]

"The entire island of Tasmania is just 15 million acres, and you think the Australian government would sell it to you? Ted Turner only owned 2 million acres," Elisabeth said, hearing Julia call them for dinner. She tidied up the scattered papers in front of her and walked to the dining room with Eric, casually shifting the topic. "How much do you think Gravity will make at the box office?"

Eric replied, "It depends on the market reaction, but breaking 100 million in the opening week shouldn't be a problem."

Elisabeth raised an eyebrow at Eric's cautious tone. "Isn't it a problem if it doesn't break 100 million? There's so much hype around it now."

Entering the kitchen, Eric washed his hands and helped Julia serve dinner. He turned to Elisabeth and said, "Haven't you looked at the data? Although 3D ticket prices increased by 50%, to ensure visual quality, our 3D screening rooms have a seating capacity of around 100. There are no large halls with two or three hundred seats. Calculating that, the daily box office limit for 2,000 3D screens is only about $25 million. Additionally, with 100 IMAX screening rooms, the daily box office limit is $3.64 million. So, the maximum daily box office for the film is a bit over $28 million; it's definitely going to be a long-term run."

"I remember Iron Man made over $35 million on its opening day," Elisabeth said, taking her dinner into the dining room and sitting down. "If you don't plan on increasing the number of 3D screens during the release, following normal film drop rates, it's certain that Gravity won't match Iron Man's box office, and achieving a global total of $1 billion will be much harder."

At that moment, Julia walked into the dining room and sat next to Eric. Hearing Elisabeth's comments, she countered, "Eric's movie will definitely hit $1 billion."

Although Elisabeth had gotten used to Julia always sitting next to Eric, seeing her cling to him still made her feel a bit annoyed. "You have so much confidence in him; why don't we place a bet?" she said.

"I'm not betting with you," Julia intentionally took a sip of Eric's juice, glancing smugly at Elisabeth. "You still haven't paid off the bet you lost to me and Eric on The Blair Witch Project."

"How can the person involved not know when someone else places a bet?" Elisabeth rolled her eyes, ignoring Julia and turning back to Eric. "By the way, this year's Sundance Film Festival is heating up. There are still over two months to go, and the number of films registered to participate is already double last year's. A lot of celebrities will be heading to Park City this year."

Eric nodded. "The growth of another film trading market will definitely be beneficial for Hollywood. However, it's going to be very hard to see a second Blair Witch Project in the next ten years."

From the beginning of the year up until now, The Blair Witch Project had almost already finished screening worldwide, with a total global box office reaching $255 million. Compared to its production cost of $60,000, the insane return on investment was enough to drive people crazy.

As the Sundance Film Festival in January approached, almost all film companies in Hollywood had started gearing up, hoping to strike gold again with a similar phenomenon to The Blair Witch Project.

However, the success of The Blair Witch Project fundamentally came from marketing, and that kind of nearly deceptive viral marketing would be hard to replicate in the short term. Although there would be increased focus on the Sundance Film Festival, Eric certainly wouldn't have overly high expectations. Firefly Group's business focus would always be on legitimate commercial films.

...

Time flew by quickly, and soon it was November 12; Gravity's global premiere officially took place at the IMAX theater in Santa Monica, Los Angeles.

In the days leading up to it, after the off-the-charts buzz from the film's advance screenings had settled down, many media outlets began to address the issues that Eric and Elisabeth mentioned on Tuesday night.

While the rave reviews for Gravity guaranteed its success, the limitations of 3D and IMAX screenings meant that, unless Firefly Group urgently increased the number of 3D theaters, achieving a global box office of $1 billion was not going to be an easy feat.

However, in various interviews with Firefly Group's higher-ups, it was revealed that there were no plans to increase the number of 3D and IMAX theaters in the short term. Many media outlets started to eagerly speculate on Gravity's box office prospects.

Iron Man, which released in the summer, recorded a peak daily box office of $37.35 million in its first week, breaking the record for the highest daily box office in Hollywood, yet its overall occupancy rate barely surpassed 70%. That was already a miraculous figure.

This led to a need to clarify the concept of occupancy rate.

Many people intuitively thought that occupancy rate only reflected how many people were in a theater, but in actuality, the occupancy rate is calculated based on the total audience number over all screenings in a given theater compared to the total number of seats.

For instance, in a theater with 100 seats, if there were only two screenings, with 10 people attending the early morning showing and 90 attending the prime-time screening, that theater's daily occupancy rate would be 50%.

The daily occupancy rate of a film is determined by averaging the rate across all its screening locations.

Usually, even for very popular films, prime-time screenings are in high demand, but due to viewing habits and weekdays, daytime screenings rarely fill up and can be quite barren.

Therefore, for Gravity, with a maximum daily box office limit of only $28 million, even if occupancy rates improved by 10% compared to Iron Man's peak, its first-week earnings would only be around $100 million.

Starting from $100 million in the first week, given Gravity's favorable reviews and assuming a 30% box office drop week-over-week, the film's total North American box office would likely remain below $300 million.

The planned international release scale for Gravity was comparable to North America, so Eric Williams' new movie might only achieve a global box office of $600 million.

While Gravity's production cost was just over $100 million, accounting for post-production, prints, and advertising costs, the total cost had crept up to nearly $200 million. A global box office of $600 million would merely allow Firefly Group to recoup its investment.

As more and more similar opinions emerged, and with Gravity's reviews no longer in doubt, North American media outlets, eager to grab attention and boost sales, naturally turned their focus to this issue, once again questioning the feasibility of Firefly Group's '4200' plan.

After all, if even a film by Eric Williams could barely break even, what about everyone else?

The outside world generally estimated that Firefly Group had invested nearly $2 billion in its '4200' plan, and given the current situation, recouping that investment seemed nearly impossible.

Although many of these discussions had potential issues with shifting concepts, there was no denying that these views gained traction among media and the public, with many even beginning to relish the prospect of watching Firefly Group fail.

...

In an atmosphere where the film received glowing reviews while its commercial prospects were under scrutiny, the global premiere of Gravity unfurled successfully without incident, attended by over 400 guests who represented the creme de la creme of Hollywood. Many fans even traveled from neighboring states just to witness the red carpet event for Gravity's premiere.

The IMAX premiere and subsequent IMAX screenings over that weekend reignited the media and public admiration for the film's visual effects, but simultaneously, criticism began to swell even more.

After all, the costs associated with IMAX films were extraordinarily high, with both the projection equipment and film prints costing over ten times that of traditional films, yet ticket prices were only double. Although IMAX theaters boasted more seating, that advantage was not clearly apparent when compared.

...

Amidst this mixture of accolades, doubts, anticipation, and debate, Gravity officially premiered on December 19 across 2,000 3D theaters and 100 IMAX theaters in North America.

However, early on December 19, the North American media erupted in response to Gravity's midnight showing box office numbers -- not because of their impressive peak, but because they were disappointingly low.

$3.57 million.

That was the midnight showing box office for Gravity.

Not to mention that when compared to the record-breaking $16.5 million for The Phantom Menace, even Eric's previous summer blockbuster Iron Man had earned $7.6 million at the midnight showing -- over twice what Gravity earned.

...

Firefly Studios.

On the small restaurant terrace of a large boat, Eric had recently added two seating arrangements with a great view.

At that moment, Jodie Foster showed little interest in the scenic views from her high vantage point. She glanced over at Eric, who was calmly reviewing a manuscript. After a moment of silence, she asked, "You don't seem worried at all, do you?"

Eric flipped through the pages of the manuscript, which was Jodie's own novel based on Gravity. He had read the first draft last year, but over the past year and more, she had been revising it repeatedly, and the current version was noticeably different from the initial draft.

To coincide with the marketing phase for Gravity, the book was set to officially launch next month through HarperCollins, a subsidiary of News Corporation, in multiple countries.

When they discussed this topic at last week's premiere, they had agreed to chat about the novel again this Saturday.

Hearing Jodie's comment, Eric looked up at her and said with a smile, "Come on, Schwarzenegger's End of Days only made $3.96 million on its opening day. What do I have to worry about?"

Two days before Gravity's release, on November 17, Universal Pictures released Arnold Schwarzenegger's action film End of Days on a Wednesday to avoid competing with Gravity.

This big-budget film, which left no impression in Eric's memory, predictably flopped, only managing to bring in $3.96 million on its first day. After three days, it had barely reached $11.53 million. While box office numbers might see an uptick over the weekend, the film's total box office after the first two days plus the weekend was likely to come in just over $20 million.

Jodie was quite displeased with Eric's nonchalant attitude, narrowing her beautiful eyes as she teased, "Have you fallen to the point where you have to compare yourself to Schwarzenegger?"

"Well, that depends on what we're comparing," Eric replied with a chuckle, knowing she was worried about him, and adjusted his tone to a more serious note. "You see, the media is always like this; they love to hype up the drama of someone falling from a height, no matter if that person is a superhero who isn't afraid of a fall."

Listening to Eric's confident tone, Jodie leaned slightly forward, propping her chin on one hand, and said, "But $3.57 million still seems a bit too low."

Eric examined the hints of femininity that had crept into Jodie's demeanor, and replied, "That's mainly because you're thinking like most people do, without realizing that Gravity's screening model is completely different from the traditional 2D films. Do you know what the occupancy rate was for last night's midnight showing?"

Jodie shook her head, her curiosity piqued.

Flipping through the manuscript, Eric continued, "Out of 2,000 3D theaters, the occupancy rate exceeded 95%. The 100 IMAX theaters were completely sold out. We selected smaller theaters to enhance the visual experience of 3D; thus, given the seating limitations, even with the increased ticket prices, the midnight box office still yields relatively low numbers."

Interestingly, Eric recalled that when James Cameron's Avatar broke box office records, its midnight showing also only brought in $3.5 million -- a fascinating coincidence.

Moreover, taking into account factors like ticket price inflation over a decade and the differences in screening scales, the midnight showing for Gravity should actually exceed that of Avatar's.

Yet, Avatar followed a pattern of cold reviews early on, followed by explosive success later, much like Titanic. Gravity, however, had been receiving outstanding reviews since the private screenings, and the first week's popularity would likely squeeze its box office potential, possibly leading to a normal commercial film drop-off afterward.

On the other hand, with only a total of 2,100 theaters screening the film, compared to the audience's initial appetite for experiencing 3D and IMAX formats, it might lead to some effects of scarcity marketing.

Considering the combination of all these somewhat conflicting influences, even Eric couldn't predict the direction Gravity's box office would take.

Jodie listened intently to Eric's explanation, appearing contemplative, then asked, "Why don't you quickly increase the number of 3D screens? Given the current situation, that should be quite simple."

"Because there aren't enough source films. From now until next summer, the Firefly system only has plans for five 3D-IMAX films: Gravity, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Underworld, Sleepy Hollow, and with IMAX, Jurassic Park: Return to the Cretaceous. To be precise, Jurassic Park is only considered 'half a movie.' So, with 2,000 screens, at the rate of one film per month, we're perfectly set up until next summer," Eric elaborated, admiring Jodie's lovely blue eyes. "Now, let's not dwell on that. The other day, I suddenly remembered something. You remember last year's Oscars? I think I still owe you a bet."

*****

https://www.patreon.com/Sayonara816.